The odds of finding the cheapest airfare

There's a 95 percent chance Senior Editor Christine Sarkis is thinking about travel right now. Follow her on Instagram @postcartography and Twitter @ChristineSarkis.

Christine Sarkis is an SATW-award-winning journalist and executive editor at SmarterTravel. Her stories have also appeared on USA Today, Conde Nast Traveler, Huffington Post, and Business Insider. Her advice has been featured in dozens of print and online publications including The New York Times, Conde Nast Traveler, and People magazine. She has also shared travel tips on television and radio shows including Good Morning America, Marketplace, and Here & Now. Her work has been published in the anthologies Spain from a Backpack and The Best Women's Travel Writing 2008. She is currently working on a travel memoir.

The Handy Item I Always Pack: The Trtl Pillow. It's easy to pack and comfortable, and makes it so I can actually sleep on flights.

Ultimate Bucket List Experience: Seeing the Aurora Borealis from the comfort of somewhere warm, like a glass igloo or hot spring.

Travel Motto: Curiosity is an amazing compass.

Aisle, Window, or Middle Seat: Aisle all the way.

Email Christine Sarkis at editor@smartertravel.com.

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Is getting the best airfare possible? According to this Houston Chronicle article, probably not.

As it turns out, finding the best airfare doesn’t just seem complex, it really is an extremely complicated process. Airlines’ computer systems are constantly adjusting fares to account for the “millions of possible combinations of fare factors for any given trip.” Fare factors include flight times and dates, routes, and airline restrictions.

There are so many factors affecting flight prices that Carl de Marcken, the primary flight-price-calculation whiz cited in the article, estimated that for an American Airlines flight between Boston and San Francisco, “there are nearly 25 million ways to arrive at a fare.” See what we’re up against? It seems that finding the absolute cheapest fare is a bit like trying to control the weather.

However, I’ve got to admit I find the news strangely liberating. If there’s just no way I can be sure to find the absolute lowest fare, I can adjust my expectations and aim for just getting a lower fare. That way, if my flight cost is in the top ten percent of least expensive flights, I’ve beaten the odds and can focus the rest of my savings efforts on other aspects of my vacation.

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