Flight Fares Are Going Up, Book Now or Pay Later

Jet fuel has roughly doubled in some regions since the joint U.S and Israeli attacks on Iran began in late February. Since fuel typically accounts for 20–25% of an airline's operating costs, that kind of spike gets passed along to you the consumer.

Airlines across Europe and Asia have already moved. Cathay Pacific doubled its fuel surcharges effective March 18. Qantas raised international fares by around 5%. Air France-KLM warned that roundtrip economy fares on long-haul flights could rise by about $57. Air India phased in surcharges starting March 12, with charges to North America climbing by $50. SAS, Air New Zealand, Finnair, and Thai Airways have all announced adjustments are coming soon.

U.S. carriers have not broadly raised base fares yet, but United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby said at a Harvard event that higher fares would "probably start quick." Analysts at Jefferies expect the most acute financial impact to hit in the next 30–90 days , as airlines have already been selling near-term summer seats at pre-spike prices and can't retroactively raise them. Once those seats sell through and new inventory prices in the new cost environment, the fares will move.

One other factor making routes more expensive: airspace closures over the Middle East have forced flights to reroute, meaning longer distances, more fuel burned, and higher costs on any route that used to cross the region. More than 43,000 flights in and out of the Middle East were canceled between February 28 and March 10, according to aviation analytics firm Cirium. The ripple effects extend well beyond the conflict zone.

Book, with one important caveat: avoid basic economy. Those restrictive non-refundable tickets lock you into a price even if fares somehow fall due to a ceasefire or rapid oil market correction with no ability to exchange or cancel and rebook cheaper.

The standard booking window for international summer flights is 3–5 months out, which is right now. You're not jumping the gun. You're in the window, and the window is under pressure.

If you're heading to Europe or Asia specifically, the deals that existed as recently as six weeks ago are not guaranteed to be there next week. Fare monitoring tools like Google Flights and AirfareWatchdog are useful for tracking price movement, but if you have a trip planned and a rough budget in mind, locking in now beats watching a fare tracker while prices climb.

For domestic flights, the urgency is somewhat lower. U.S. carriers have been slower to adjust, and domestic routes don't face the same fuel math as long-haul international routes. But the global fuel cost environment doesn't stay siloed, and analysts expect domestic fares to follow if oil prices remain elevated.