Each spring, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University announce their predictions for activity during the upcoming hurricane season.
In June, I reported that NOAA had called for a 50-percent probability of a near normal season, and a 25-percent chance of a below-normal hurricane season. However, it has now updated its prediction, saying there’s a 40-percent probability of a below normal season. That breaks down to a 70 percent chance of three to six hurricanes, including one or two category 3 or higher hurricanes.
So the short of it is this: There may be fewer storms this season, but when it comes to hurricanes, it’s always better to prepare for the worst. The Tropical Meteorology Project has 15-day forecasts during August, September, and October, that can be helpful if you’re planning a trip to hurricane-prone areas.