What to Look for When Making Holiday Travel Plans

In today's strange economy, you shouldn't be surprised to hear that the question readers most frequently ask me is, "What's happening with travel this fall and winter?" Although nobody can tell for sure, an update of a similar column last fall is probably in order.

The two main forces driving the market last year remain the top concerns:

• The economy. The pundits tell us the bottom is over and we're starting the recovery. Maybe, but I still see consumers keeping their wallets tight and, until that really changes, the travel industry will remain in its slump. Airlines remain an economic basket case—they depend on business travelers for so much of their revenue— but they've already adjusted to weak demand with major cutbacks.
• The Internet. Search engines continue to make it ridiculously easy for every consumer to compare prices from every supplier, instantly and effortlessly, and&mdashl;if anything—they've become even more sophisticated than a year ago. No supplier can afford to look more expensive than its direct competitors very long, so they're extremely reluctant to increase list prices.

Given those factors, I'd say the outlook is encouraging for fall and winter travel, provided you look in the right places and control spending on the extras. Here are some key trends I see:

Dead Senior Deals. If not actually dead, they're at least moribund. Except for Southwest, airlines that formerly offered some great senior deals have virtually abandoned seniors as a customer group. Hotels provide modest discounts to AARP members—about the same deals they give to AAA members—but discounts available to travelers of any age are usually much better. Ditto car rentals—and rates for everyone are far higher than a year ago. Cruise agencies occasionally offer modest discounts to seniors 55 or over, but that's not common. A few tour operators—notably in the "soft" adventure travel segment—design tour products specifically for seniors, but by and large you're better off forgetting senior deals and looking the same places younger folks look.

The Year of the Extra. Airlines' use of extra fees for just about everything beyond access to a seat has blossomed over the last year, and I see no end any time soon. With a very few exceptions (Thanks, Southwest), you'll pay extra to check even one bag, for just about anything you consume or use on a plane, for preferred seat assignments (or any advance assignment, on some lines), for any changes you want to make, and so on. Were it not for government oversight, airlines would try to present some mandatory purchases as extras. And a few fees, such as Allegiant's convenience fee to book a ticket online, are borderline scams, in that you really can't avoid them. You can expect some hotels, not under the watchful eye of the government, to add more mandatory extras as resort fees, housekeeping, fees, and such. Ditto cruise lines. So far, the big online travel agencies haven't adjusted their fare or hotel price displays to allow you to compare total costs based on the extras you want or need, but that will come.
Short-Term Sales. You can expect continued airfare, hotel, resort, and cruise sales with very short advance notice and short purchase windows, but covering travel over a period of several months. You can also expect more innovative sales such as JetBlue's unlimited-travel pass and United's single annual two-bag fee. And, of course, you will continue to see lots of extra miles promotions—unfortunately, without any corresponding extra award seat offers.

Overall Price Levels. In aggregate, I expect to see little change in air, hotel, tour, and cruise prices this fall and winter. Suppliers are as uncertain as you are about the future of the economy, and they'll try as best they can to stay flexible with pricing. That may mean slightly higher peak-season prices, when they can get away with them, coupled with ongoing promotions for slower times. Pick your promotional targets and stay away from the extras and you'll be fine. As always, and flexibility is the key.