Much to the relief of the traveling public, the airline industry is finally rebounding after more than five years of bankruptcies, near-bankruptcies, and a pervasive pall of uncertainty and anxiety. The turmoil wasn't just temporary time-outs afforded by Chapter 11 bankruptcies. National and Independence failed altogether, leaving members of their frequent flyer programs empty-handed.
Now the skies have largely cleared, and the prognosis is that the industry is on track to regain its previous stability. Demand for travel is robust, as summer flyers experienced firsthand. Many airlines have cut back their flight schedules, reducing capacity on less popular routes. Average ticket prices have been rising even as operating expenses have been slashed. As a result, sustainable profitability finally seems at hand.
United and US Airways both put bankruptcy squarely behind them and appear well positioned to survive over the long term. Aloha and Hawaiian Airlines have done the same. As a group, the airlines have turned a corner.
And then there's Northwest.
Northwest veers off course
On September 14, 2005, Delta and Northwest submitted separate applications for bankruptcy protection. They both cited the need to shed costs and reorganize as more efficient airlines in order to compete effectively with the likes of Southwest and JetBlue, as well as with legacy carriers that had reinvented themselves as leaner, meaner operators.
It was highly improbable that two major carriers would file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on the very same day. Industry-watchers (including me) speculated at the time that Delta and Northwest had coordinated their bankruptcies as part of a larger plan that included an eventual merger.
But over the past year, Delta's and Northwest's fortunes have been very different. Where Delta has moved forward briskly in securing the cooperation of its various labor groups, Northwest remains mired in an ugly standoff with its flight attendants that has the potential to bring the airline to its knees.
The current state of affairs is no great surprise given the two carriers' histories, especially in the area of labor relations. Unlike Delta, which has had mostly benign labor-management relationships, Northwest has a long track record of friction with its workforce. Just over a year ago, in August 2005, Northwest's mechanics walked off the job in a dispute over wages and work rules. The airline had replacements standing by and managed to keep its flight schedules largely intact. Not only did Northwest break the back of the mechanic's union, but it signaled to other unions that strikes would not be tolerated.
Northwest's likely landing spots
Will Northwest be left standing when the current industry shake-out is over? If not, what is the airline's likely fate, and the fate of miles in Northwest's WorldPerks frequent flyer program?
As Northwest's management argued in court, a walkout could affect the carrier's operations so severely that it would be forced to shut down permanently. That's a worst-case scenario, in which a combination of canceled flights and consumer distrust would choke off revenue and lead to a complete collapse.
At the other end of the spectrum, Northwest could overcome its labor hurdles, successfully restructure as a low-cost carrier, and retain its place as one of the country's largest airlines. At least for a time. Northwest is mentioned as a likely candidate in what some analysts expect to be a round of mergers and acquisitions as the industry continues to "rightsize." In that case, Northwest might absorb or be acquired by another airline and continue operations as a different entity.
How would these various scenarios affect travelers? Only an outright liquidation—by far the least likely of the possible outcomes—would seriously inconvenience Northwest ticket-holders. In the event of a shutdown, Northwest passengers would have to rebook on other airlines, which would charge service fees to accommodate them. That is, of course, assuming that other airlines have available seats.