Is a Cuba Vacation in Your Future?

Will the United States ease its ban on tourism to Cuba soon? Among the many anticipated political and economic changes for 2009 and 2010 includes a possible opening to Cuba. Although the new administration and Congress have some far weightier problems on their agendas, this one is an interesting possibility.

I see two approaches that appear most likely for the initial phases of implementation:

• Cruise Ports: Havana is an important historical site—in fact, central Old Havana is an official UNESCO World Heritage site. Key features include Morro Castle, the Cathedral and Cathedral Square, and a long list of museums, churches, and exhibits. And, of course, there is plenty of Cuba's traditional nightlife. The other most likely cruise port is Santiago de Cuba, on the Caribbean side near the eastern end of the island.
• Beach Vacations: Varadero Beach, about 80 miles east of Havana, is the island's major beach destination. It's a narrow peninsula, about 15 miles long, with what many believe to be one of the region's best beaches. Pre-Castro, it was an "in" playground for a few wealthy Americans; now it attracts mass visitors from Canada and Europe. Cuba has several other beach centers, but with its proximity to the U.S. mainland (just 200 miles from Miami) and 11,000-foot jet runway, Varadero is an obvious prime candidate.

My guess is that if the United States does ease the embargo, Cuban authorities will want to go slowly in opening up to U.S. travelers. Specifically, chances are that even a post-Fidel government will try to keep close control over those visitors and minimize opportunities for them to stir up anti-government sentiment. Beach tourism would be a natural attraction, in that the island's beaches already have a well-developed hotel and restaurant infrastructure, and beach tourists can largely be confined to those seaside enclaves. Similarly, cruise visitors stopping in Havana for a day could be limited to officially sanctioned port excursions, with virtually no unsanctioned "leakage."

Don't think that the U.S. embargo has left Cuba as an underdeveloped backwater with only primitive tourist facilities. Varadero and other beach centers, as well as Havana, have seen extensive hotel development by European—especially Spanish—and Canadian hotel chains. Just take a quick look at hotel reports on SmarterTravel.com's sister site TripAdvisor to see the many favorable comments about current Cuban hotel and restaurant facilities.

Does the Caribbean really need more conventional beach centers? Obviously not, in the sense that existing centers have plenty of capacity to handle available markets. But the proximity of a relatively exotic environment makes the idea attractive to U.S. tour operators. I vaguely remember pre-Castro days with nonstops to Varadero from New York, as well as shuttle hops from Miami. And some U.S. travelers always seem obsessed with checking out whatever is the new, hot destination.

Havana, of course, had a pre-Castro reputation for wide-open nightlife, as well as history, encouraged by extensive control of gambling and prostitution by U.S.-based organized crime groups. If you've seen the fabulous musical Guys and Dolls, you'll remember that Havana was widely regarded as an easy weekend jaunt for New Yorkers.

Please don't treat this report as either advocacy on my part or a firm prediction that Cuba will open to U.S. tourists this year. I'm aware that lots of Americans feel the United States shouldn't ease the embargo without some real concessions from the Cuban government on human rights and property compensation issues. And it's also possible that the United States won't do anything about the embargo until Fidel fully retires or dies. But the talk in the industry is there, so it could happen. Keep your eyes on the news.